Ray Dalio is a hedge fund manager that I really appreciate for his Zen-like ability to cut through the noise of the marketplace and make his decision making so clear. The following are excerpts from his recent paper on how he determines if we are in a stock market...
I’m sure you’ve noticed how different the countryside looks when flying over it in an airplane, so we are going to take a look at the financial markets from a similar perspective to see what we can glean. This first chart shows the S&P 500 Index over past 30...
My usual January comment is that I don’t like to make predictions about the financial markets. Psychologically, one tends to get anchored to a prediction they make, and if the markets behave differently, that anchor becomes a pull toward making poor investment...
There are many positives in the stock markets right now. The third year of the presidential election cycle, which is normally the strongest of the four years between elections, delivered good returns as expected. We are in the colder months of the year which are often...
The stock market had a nice rally recently, but we are still in a bear market, and although I don’t want to throw a wet blanket on the gains from the recent rally, I do want to talk about the potential for a continuation of the bear market and possibly even a stock...
When I was released from the army in 1974, I had been assigned to the Command Operations Center - the War Room – for US Army Alaska. We made war plans, executed war games, and analyzed their outcomes. One thing I learned during that period, is that regardless of how...
The economy today in China has many similarities to what happened some years back in Japan. After WWII, Japan’s manufacturing methods were more modern and proving superior to the US in many ways. Japan was so successful that they were buying up iconic properties...
I don’t normally make or even follow predictions because doing so anchors one’s mind to that expectation. If the stock market goes in a different direction than what was predicted, there can be a strong psychological pull on me to make wrong decisions. With that...
These days, everyone seems to be either excited about Artificial Intelligence or worried about it, and some of us are both. So, I wanted to see if I could clear up a few things about this thing that most folks just call “AI.” AI is really nothing new. It has been...
June headlines said that the bull market has returned! Hurray! No more worries! Yeah, right. In my opinion, the idea doesn’t pass the smell test. First of all, I don’t trust the media to tell it straight and I suspect these headlines are products of the Wall...
When everyone expects something to happen in the financial markets, normally the opposite happens. Lately, it seems that everyone expects the US to slide into recession. Think for a minute. Do you know anyone who thinks otherwise? Employment appears strong and,...
A debate is brewing in Congress about whether to approve President Biden's request to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. If not resolved, the issue could cause a shutdown of government services beginning as early as July. With this issue possibly dominating...
