After a challenging time for most stock market indexes in August and September, the seasonal October low happened a bit later than we expected.  We had noticed a pattern where the market lows for the Fall season tended to happen in the first half of the month, as they...

The month of October can often be a challenge.  At some point in this “spooky” month, major seasonal bottoms tend to happen.  October also signals the end of the “Sell in May…” part of the year.  Historically, mid-October to late-April is the strong half of the year...

Seasonality strikes again!  It should be no surprise that September has been a weak month across most of the stock market, as historically it has the highest probability of any month to see losses.  And this year is no different.  However, what this does do is set up...

As August began, it wasn’t much of a surprise to see the market start to pull back a bit from its over-stretched and over-bought conditions.  The stock market can only run up (or down) like that for so long before it needs to take a break.  It often reverts back to an...

I think this year’s stock market seasonality got the June/July results backwards.  Little was expected in June, but the month turned out well.  July is usually expected to be a good month, but has been underwhelming.  At least, not as positive as we were expecting. ...

Here we are, half way through 2023 already!  While things seem to look OK when you look at major indexes (like the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100), there are definitely some issues underneath the surface we have to remain aware of.  You’d think the market is healthy...

The last thing I was expecting this month was a nearly flat market.  Sure, there have been some interesting ups and downs, but as I write this at the end of May, the S&P 500 is still where it was in early-February.  There has been a lot of political drama around...

Our expectations for April were higher than what reality gave us.  Just as I was writing last month’s market commentary, things were starting to look up.  Sector strength was improving.  Money flow was turning positive.  And seasonality factors suggested a reasonable...

March is historically a strong month for the stock market.  However, this year, it wasn’t until around the middle of the month that we saw most markets start to make gains.  While those gains were focused on the Technology and NASDAQ space, the S&P 500 also showed...

After a solid start to the year and positive results in the stock and bond markets in January, February hasn’t fared as well.  Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 peaked on February 2nd and have been making a slow and wandering move downwards ever since.  In fact,...

Happy New Year!  Since I was born in the year of the Rabbit, I’m excited about what is possible.  And since the Rabbit is a symbol of peace and prosperity, I like what that means for 2023. After a slow start to January, the stock market seems to share my optimism for...

It’s “Santa Clause Rally” time and Santa is nowhere in sight!  Historically, the last 5 trading days of December and the first two trading days of January are when that “rally” is supposed to happen.  But this year, it looks like we (the collective “we”) are...