Artificial intelligence (AI) has been all the rage for a few years now, and stocks focused on this market sector have been red hot.  We own a few of these issues in our Future Technologies models, and I wished we owned more – should’a, could’a, would’a and all.   

But none of us portfolio managers can rest on our laurels.  We are always looking ahead trying to discern when the current trend might be slowing down, and what industry, sector or market might become the new leader. 

AI is changing the world for both businesses and us here on main street, so what could possibly overtake it as the driver behind big economic gains?  Robots?  Maybe, but they will primarily be tools driven by AI and won’t create a paradigm shift like AI has done.  How about Quantum Computing? 

The theory of quantum computing has been talked about for years and it seems that its time has finally come.  There are currently a handful of quantum computers working around the world and the computing power of these machines is mind-boggling. 

Traditional computers use tiny switches that are either on or off, 0 or 1.  These are called binary systems.  Accuracy is assured because if a value is zero then it cannot be one at the same time.  These systems excel at logically solving one problem at a time.  Current computers might have many processors, but each is solving one problem at a time. 

Quantum computers use “qubits” which can be both 1 and 0 at the same time, sort of like a spinning coin that can be both heads and tails until it lands. This uncertainty or fuzziness is similar to how our human brains sort sensory inputs and memories, disregarding unlikely outcomes until we can decide what is most likely to happen next. Rarely can we be 100% certain of an outcome.  Stuff happens.   

This ability to be less than exact allows quantum computing to handle complexities and discover things that traditional computers cannot.  A traditional computer would solve a maze one path at a time.  Quantum computers can explore all the paths simultaneously.  Quantum computers will be able to model not one complex system, but multiple complex systems adjusting as they interact with each other. 

The great limitation of current AI programs is that they can never really discover something new.  Regardless of how much computing power is applied to the problem, AI is only as good as the data it was trained on.  And humans produce all that data, limiting AI’s accomplishments to something that is derived from existing knowledge, existing accomplishments, or existing creations.  The human experience is the great limitation of AI. 

Despite all the promise of AI today, it still falls short of the complexity of an average single cell organism. 

But quantum computing does not have these limitations. 

One system is not better than the other, but they each have different strengths.  I imagine there will be a combining of AI and quantum computing so we end up with the best of both worlds.  Traditional computing will be used for everyday tasks, but quantum computing will allow discoveries that will advance humankind beyond what we can imagine today.   

Quantum computing power is massively greater than what we can think of today and will allow creation of new proteins, new chemicals, or designs of structures so light and strong that they will expand our conception of what is physically possible.  Get ready for brand new materials and technologies leading to great changes in pharmaceuticals, health care and longevity.  Weather forecasting will be one of the first changes as it gets noticeably better. 

There are quantum computers operating now and like everything technological, their power is increasing rapidly.  I have seen estimates that this new technology will have the traction it needs to visibly change our world by 2030.  Buckle up.  This will be fun to watch unfold.