It feels like October 2007 all over again: We saw new market highs, retail investors are feeling like they’ve missed the boat and are getting more interested in taking on more risk. That was my initial impression on October 1 of this year. However, since the US Government shutdown and the debt ceiling issues raised their ugly heads, investor’s perceptions changed very quickly.
The news on television may sound bleak, but we think this looks more like opportunity than disaster….at least in the short-term (next several months). Typically Halloween, also known as October 31st, is the last day of the “Sell In May and Go Away” period. This marks the end of summer volatility, with the value of the market ending somewhere near where we started on April 30th. (Think “…sound and fury signifying nothing.”)
It looks probable that once this “scary” month of October is over, we could have a solid run-up into the end of the year. We have a plan of action in place for this scenario and hope you (if you are not working with us) do, too!
The chart below shows what an “average” year looks like for the S&P500, month-by-month, going all the way back to 1950. We think it gives a great visual of where the markets are right now and how we might expect them to look in the near future.
October is IRA Season!! Wait, what? Yes, really! Historically October is the most ideal time to put money to work in the market. Instead of waiting until the tax deadline (the least ideal time), make your contributions now and get it over with. We believe it could help you out in the long-term. After all, every little bit helps!
Fun Fact – IRA Contribution limits have been raised to $5500 (under age 50) or $6500 (over age 50). Make the most of it!