The first quarter of 2019 was a nice change from what we saw in Q4 of last year. And while it was one of the strongest first quarters since 1998 (cnbc.com), the S&P 5001 still hasn’t recovered the all-time highs it reached in September 2018. It ’s also been interesting to note that this quarter’s gains largely occurred in January and February. The market was up only approximately 1% in March – half of which occurred on the last day of the month (source: FastTrack data). March didn’t see much stock market growth, so our lowered exposure to it didn’t miss out on much.
The Q1 rally appears to be weakening. Last month’s newsletter suggested we were at an inflection point that could either take us to new
The Yield Curve is nearly-inverting, and on some timeframes it already has. According to Tony Dwyer, the curve to watch (the one that signals recessions) is when the 2 year Treasury Yield is higher than the 10 Year Treasury Yield. That still hasn’t happened. And even when it does, it doesn’t mean an immediate market crash, but rather an expected recession in 2 to 3 quarters (6 to 9 months).
However, what we have seen is the 3 Month Treasury Yield go higher than the 10-year. We believe that
Another factor that is giving us pause at this time is that small-cap stocks are no longer leading
Our V33 Indicator will be switching to “Growth” mode for the second quarter of 2019, as we expected after a strong first quarter. However, due
Bonds – The Aggregate Bond index (AGG) continues to be strong this year, currently up 2.94% YTD (ishares.com). Much of bonds’ direction in 2019, we expect, will
Our goal, as always, is to keep risk small when it isn’t warranted.
We hope you are having a great Spring, wherever you may be!
The Standard and Poor’s 500 is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted
benchmark that tracks broad-based changes in the U.S. stock market. This
index of 500 common stocks is comprised of 400 industrial, 20
transportation, 40 utility, and 40 financial companies representing
major U.S. industry sectors. The index is calculated on a total return
basis with dividends reinvested and is not available for direct
2 Charts are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be a projection or prediction of current or future performance of any specific product. All financial products have an element of risk and may experience loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
3 V3 is a proprietary indicator developed by Shadowridge Asset Management, LLC. Its objective is to take several market sentiment factors and project how to view US stock market investment in the following quarter: for Safety, for Balance, or for Growth.